It’s a little-discussed fact that if you are drafted outside of the lottery, you’re not likely to have a huge impact in the NBA.  Here is a short list from RealGM of the “Top 10 players” (by production) for the second and third draft year back (2008 and 2007).  Two asterisks** means that the player was drafted outside the lottery; three asterisks*** refers to an international player who stayed at least a year overseas before joining the NBA.   (Only Rodney Stuckey, Roy Hibbert , Aaron Brooks, and Carl Landry made that list, and Brooks/Landry being on a Houston team decimated by injury may have skewed that number).

Third-Year NBA players

1 Kevin Durant OKC 88 39.4 .470 .900 .360 29.8 7.6 2.8 1.05 1.31 3.3 1536 17.7 +380
2 Al Horford ATL 91 35.1 .550 .790 1.000 14.2 9.8 2.3 1.21 0.74 1.5 1318 16.5 +434
*** 3 Luis Scola HOU 82 32.6 .510 .780 .200 16.2 8.6 2.1 0.32 0.76 2.0 955 14.3 +584
4 Joakim Noah CHI 69 30.6 .510 .760 .000 11.0 11.2 2.1 1.55 0.58 1.9 931 17.6 +803
** 5 Aaron Brooks HOU 82 35.6 .430 .820 .400 19.6 2.6 5.3 0.17 0.83 2.8 853 11.7 +1777
6 Jeff Green OKC 88 37.1 .450 .750 .330 14.9 5.9 1.6 0.84 1.19 1.6 845 10.3 +463
** 7 Carl Landry SAC 80 30.9 .540 .810 .330 16.8 5.8 0.8 0.79 0.68 1.7 813 13.2 +560
8 Mike Conley MEM 80 32.1 .440 .740 .390 12.0 2.4 5.3 0.15 1.36 2.1 704 11.0 +383
***9 Ersan Ilyasova MIL 88 23.3 .450 .730 .340 10.3 6.5 1.0 0.26 0.65 0.9 684 13.3 +758
**10 Rodney Stuckey DET 74 33.8 .400 .830 .230 16.4 3.8 4.7 0.16 1.35 2.2 670 10.7 +844

Second-year NBA players

1 Brook Lopez NJN 82 36.9 .500 .820 .000 18.8 8.7 2.3 1.70 0.67 2.5 1155 15.3 +921
2 Russell Westbrook OKC 88 34.4 .420 .780 .240 16.4 5.0 7.8 0.40 1.30 3.2 1147 15.2 +513
3 Derrick Rose CHI 83 37.1 .490 .770 .270 21.1 3.7 6.1 0.33 0.73 2.8 1055 13.7 +334
4 Marc Gasol MEM 69 35.8 .580 .670 .000 14.6 9.3 2.4 1.59 1.00 2.0 994 16.1 +565
5 Kevin Love MIN 60 28.6 .450 .820 .330 14.0 11.0 2.3 0.38 0.73 2.0 822 19.2 +517
6 O.J. Mayo MEM 82 38.0 .460 .810 .380 17.5 3.8 3.0 0.21 1.20 2.1 790 10.1 +375
7 Danilo Gallinari NYK 81 33.9 .420 .820 .380 15.1 4.9 1.7 0.72 0.91 1.4 788 11.5 +541
8 Jason Thompson SAC 75 31.4 .470 .710 .100 12.5 8.5 1.6 0.99 0.55 1.9 741 12.6 +822
9 Michael Beasley MIA 83 29.7 .450 .800 .280 14.6 6.3 1.2 0.59 1.00 1.7 702 11.4 +288
**10 Roy Hibbert IND 81 25.1 .490 .750 .500 11.7 5.7 2.0 1.62 0.37 1.8 699 13.7 +982

Therefore, the early entrants NEED TO make the lottery for a team to invest heavily in their development.

Here is my top 10 list of the guys who might wish they had decided differently…

1. Eric Bledsoe, KY – 12 pts. With John Wall gone, he could pair with “Knight” to be the best backcourt in the country.

2. Stanley Crawford, Xavier — 20 pts, 4 rebs.  They return a good team, and he may not be a lottery selection.

3. Manny Harris, MI – 18 ppg.  Seriously, has anyone outside of the Big 10 heard of him? I’ve seen the highlights, but since Michigan should be better next year,another year could only help his draft position.

4. Daniel Orton, KY – 3 pts, 3 reb.  Has his year stagnating behind DeMarcus Cousins helped him? Next year he could get some playing time on another top-five team; who knows if teams will take seriously a guy who was a backup on his college team (OK, it was the Kentucky Wildcats, but the pros have some good players too I’ve heard).

5. Elliot Williams, Memphis –17 ppg. I’ve heard so much talk about his “strong hand”, but he did get shut down late against the good teams. Another year in college wouldn’t hurt him.

6. Terrico White, Ole Miss — 15 pts, 4 rebounds.   Who knows where he’ll land? He’s a good player, if he slides past 20-25 he might end up in the second round.

7. Willie Warren, OK — 14 pts, 3 assists. A guy from the heartland with lots of heart. But I’m not seeing him in first-round territory in many of the mock drafts. Couldn’t he wait and maybe increase his stock?

8. Avery Bradley, TX — 11 ppg, 2 APG.  A point guard from a major conference, not yet a proven scorer or distributor.

NOT IN DRAFT

9. Jimmer Ferdette, BYU – 22 ppg (49 against ‘Zona in NCAAs).  Love the “returning to school”; however he got a ton of pub following the NCAAs, he might need to go now.

10. Kyle Singler, Duke – 17 ppg, 7 rpg (Final 4 MVP). When is this guy going to have a higher profile? Take the money.

Playoff Predictions: Back to the ’80s Edition

Editor’s Note: Today jamjam365 brings you the Stacheketball NBA Playoff Predictions for 2010. Those at the top of the heap are easy to predict, rather, we’re looking at the contentious positions here: the final four seats at the table. We present to you the last four teams who will make the Western Conference playoffs and the four who will miss out — accompanied by a fine dose of themed ’80s music!

Best in the West : Last Four In

Utah Jazz – “All that Jazz” (not Bob Fosse Edition)

Did not improve at trade deadline.  Loss of Maynor and Brewer affects the depth, they will fall behind the Suns.  Best case scenario; veteran coaching plus Williams’ skill makes them a late bloomer.

Oklahoma City Thunder – “Movin on Up” (Retro Remake Mix)

Keep their hold on sixth spot and will be a tough matchup. Durant will probably finish third in the MVP race, and by all rights (and stats alone) he should really be a strong second instead of distant third. Worst case scenario: a case of youth jitters takes them down the board and they face a matchup with LALakers.

San Antonio Spurs – “So Tough to Say Goodbye to Yesterday” (Boyz2Men Still Picture Edit)

Parker, oft-injured; Ginobli, usually-injured; and Duncan, awesome, but still old, old.  Bring back the old days, they wish…..

Portland Trailblazers – Portland, Orgeon and Slow Gin Fizz (Loretta Lynn – Jack White duet)

A couple of shots of something strong, and maybe the Blazers will think they belong….. (Before all the hate mail of Blazers fans having their tizzies, they could have fallen out of the playoffs just like the Grizzlies). OK, OK, so the video is  not from the 80s… you try finding a video about Portland AND going into a slow tailspin.  On the plus side, though, Portland’s rebounding has really looked up lately.  Their depth and matchup problems could trouble Denver if they could move into the #7 seed. Continue Reading

Here are my top ten winners at the NBA trade deadline.  The first five are Talent Winners; they upgraded their squad for the stretch run.  The second five are the Cap Winners, they downgraded talent or mortgaged their future via deals which lowered their payroll and will help with the pursuit of Lebron James, Dwayne Wade, or other top-tier free agents. Continue Reading

During the TNT 2010 All-Star Game telecast, Ernie Johnson revealed the Player of the Decade as voted on by fans at NBA.com. The runaway winner was Kobe Bryant, with 54% of the vote, followed by LeBron James at 17%. Tim Duncan and Shaquille O’Neal — the two most deserving of consideration, in my humble opinion — only garnered 8% and 13% respectively.

Here is where I have to step in, agree with Charles Barkley and the rest of the knowledgeable TNT crew and say, “what are you thinking, people?!?”

Results from votes like this really show that the general public should not be given a say in anything important. Things like…hmmm…who should run a country. Oh hang on, they already do! But seriously, just like the shambles of an All-Star vote that sees Tracy McGrady almost get in and Allen Iverson actually get voted in as a starter, the public continues to show how little they know about NBA basketball. And how short their memories are.

If we were to conduct a poll of the Top Player of the Past Five Years, sure, Bryant gets the vote, hands down (with a nod to LeBron James). Of the decade, however? It’s Shaq and Duncan all the way, battling for the crown. Duncan has been consistently brilliant during this past decade, averaging approximately 21.0ppg, 11.5rpg and 2.7bpg without indiscretion, whilst leading his team to four titles (granted one of those did come in 1998-99). And O’Neal, well let’s just say that if you look at his three titles in LA (don’t for a second think that they weren’t all about him) and then to follow that up with a ring in Miami… well, if he had his first five years of the decade now (take a look at the ridiculous numbers), we wouldn’t have so many short-memoried people.

Don’t dismiss this as some Kobe Bryant haterade. I actually count myself as someone who regards Bryant as the greatest player in the game right now — a title I struggled to bestow upon him for a long time. He has clearly matured from his earlier, “me-first” days and is a strong team leader, smooth spokesman and undeniable force on both ends of the court. He just has not been the greatest player of the past decade, when all things are considered. He is not even second best.

Here is the TNT broadcast, including what the crew had to say:

And LeBron? Let’s just say he shouldn’t have even been on the ballot. What do you think? Do you too think that the NBA.com voting population also must consist solely of 14 year-olds with no memory of the early ’90s? Or do you think Kobe is clearly a 4-5 times more deserving Player of the Decade than Duncan or O’Neal?